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Dave’s Long Term Outlook: May 1, 2025

Summary

Background:

During the past five years, the money supply has increased from $15,993.8 billion to $21,762.5 billion, and the velocity has increased from 1.128 to 1.383. During this period, gold reached new all-time highs, and interest rates increased. My long-term outlook over the next five years is that interest rates will decline, and gold will not be a good investment. The changes to tariffs and regulations made by the Trump administration are deflationary. Long-term high-quality bonds should perform well in this environment.

Recommendation for Retirement Accounts:

Reduce your exposure to hard assets like gold and silver. Increase your exposure to high-quality bond funds that hold longer-term bonds with maturities greater than ten years.

Happy Trading,
Dave Register
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About the Author

Dave Register is ExitPoint’s primary developer and creator of the original ExitPoints systems. With a masters in both Physics and Statistics, over 50 years of experience in management information systems and designing AI systems to accurately predict futures market trading, Dave is a respected member of the trading community. His passion for predicting market trends is both personal and professional, a primary interest that he enjoys sharing with others.

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Risk Disclosure:

Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and onlythose with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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Hypothetical Performance Disclosure:

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. no representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

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