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Dave’s Analysis (Feb 17, 2025)

Summary

Background:

Since January 30, 2025, the March Dow Jones Industrial Average e-mini (YMH25) has been experiencing a sideways correction. Despite the numerous bearish news stories about high inflation and lower retail sales for January, the market is holding its ground. This resilience suggests that the market might be poised to move higher. Historical data indicates that sideways corrections often precede significant price movements, which aligns with our current observations.

Analysis:

Yesterday, my MACD indicator turned bullish, indicating a potential uptrend. Moreover, the volume and open interest trends over the past four trading days have been downward. This trend usually signals that a breakout is imminent. While the breakout could go either way, my analysis leans towards an upward movement due to the prior rally in prices before the current sideways consolidation. Historical patterns and momentum indicators also support this perspective.

Recommendation:

For February 18, 2025, I recommend buying YMH25 at a stop price of 44743. If the order is filled, place the initial stop loss at 44244.

For trade management and more insights into my trading philosophy for futures, please visit my website. It provides detailed guidelines and strategies for managing trades post-entry, ensuring you stay aligned with market movements.

Happy Trading, Dave Register CTA

 

About the Author

Dave Register is ExitPoint’s primary developer and creator of the original ExitPoints systems. With a masters in both Physics and Statistics, over 50 years of experience in management information systems and designing AI systems to accurately predict futures market trading, Dave is a respected member of the trading community. His passion for predicting market trends is both personal and professional, a primary interest that he enjoys sharing with others.

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Risk Disclosure:

Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and onlythose with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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Hypothetical Performance Disclosure:

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. no representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

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