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Dave’s Weekly Analysis (Oct. 23rd, 2024)

Summary

This article is a weekly series, recapping the past weeks’ trends and analysis! These posts are sent to ExitPoints newsletter subscribers first; if you’d like to be up on our news in real-time, sign up for free today: https://exitpoints.com/newsletter/

  Background: Russia is one of the world’s top exporters of wheat, however new reports indicate their exports are declining. See here for more information: https://www.etftrends.com/commodities-channel/rising-russian-wheat-prices-underscore-global-food-concerns/ .

 Analysis:

  • My Elliott wave count said there was an X wave decline in December wheat from 617.25 on 10/2/2024 to 565.75. I expected a bullish tradable swing trade based on this data.
  • The Gann Slope lines produced by the squaring of price with time agreed with the Elliott wave count.
  • The currently dominant cycle is 12 market days and the low appeared to have occurred as expected on 10/22/2024!
  • The MACD momentum indicator gave a buy signal on 10/22/2024. 
  • Lastly, there was a bullish Hammer candlestick pattern on 10/24/2024.

 Tags: Russia, Wheat, Futures, Agriculture, weekly analysis

In conclusion, based on our trend analysis, the recommendation was to buy December mini wheat at 591.75 with a stop order. For managing the trade after entry, check out my trading philosophy for futures on this website.

Happy Trading,

Dave Register

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About the Author

Dave Register is ExitPoint’s primary developer and creator of the original ExitPoints systems. With a masters in both Physics and Statistics, over 50 years of experience in management information systems and designing AI systems to accurately predict futures market trading, Dave is a respected member of the trading community. His passion for predicting market trends is both personal and professional, a primary interest that he enjoys sharing with others.

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Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and onlythose with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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Hypothetical Performance Disclosure:

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. no representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

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