Soybean futures entered February 2026 with a more constructive tone as traders weighed improving Chinese demand against heavy competition from a record Brazilian crop.
The USDA kept its U.S. 2025/26 soybean balance sheet unchanged in February, with ending stocks projected at 350 million bushels and the season-average farm price forecast at $10.20 per bushel. At the same time, U.S. soybean exports remained under pressure, with September-through-January inspections running 35% below the prior year.
China Brings Buyers Back Into Focus
The more bullish development came from China.
On February 9, USDA reported a private export sale of 264,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China for the 2025/26 marketing year. USDA also noted reports that China was considering purchasing as much as 20 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans during the season, although that larger figure had not yet become official policy.
That renewed demand helped shift market sentiment. By February 12, March soybean futures had reached their highest closing level since December 1, according to CME Group.
Brazil Remains the Main Headwind
The bullish case still faced a major obstacle: Brazil.
Brazil was harvesting a record soybean crop and continued to compete aggressively for global export business. USDA noted that U.S. exporters were already feeling the pressure, particularly in the Chinese market.
That means any sustained rally in ZS would likely require stronger demand rather than simply tighter supply.
Domestic demand was providing some support. U.S. soybean crush reached nearly 230 million bushels in December, setting a record daily crushing pace and highlighting continued strength from the processing sector.
Momentum Improves, but Don’t Chase It
The February rally showed that buyers were returning, but the technical picture was beginning to look stretched.
CME noted that soybeans had moved into overbought territory based on RSI as futures reached their strongest closing level in more than two months.
That makes price confirmation especially important. A pullback that holds support could offer a cleaner setup than buying after an extended move.
February Trading View
Soybeans had a more balanced setup in February 2026 than they did earlier in the winter.
Chinese buying, strong domestic crush demand, and improving price momentum supported the bulls. Record Brazilian supply remained the major bearish force.
Outlook: Cautiously bullish, with price confirmation before entry.
If Chinese demand continues to improve and soybean futures can hold recent gains, ZS could have room to extend the recovery. But with Brazil supplying the global market aggressively, discipline remains essential.
Happy Trading!